Erratic El Nino rains complicate food security situation in 2010

Estimates by Tegemeo based on field visits and assessment place the long rains production at 18 million bags, which is far below the Ministry of Agriculture’s (MoA) estimate of 28 million bags.

Therefore, from the long rains harvest, the country faces a production shortfall of 10 million bags.

Additionally, Tegemeo estimates that the country will receive an extra three million bags from the short rains crop.

The expected total production from the 2009/2010 crop year is about 21-22 million bags, against the country’s current maize consumption estimated at 36-38 million bags.

This leaves a shortfall of at least 15 million bags to be bridged through imports.

This deficit will have a significant impact on access to food as a result of continued upward pressure on maize grain and meal prices.

The 2009/2010 harvest of 21-22 million is expected to last about seven months given a national consumption of about three million bags per month.

The long rains harvest started in August/September 2009, implying that the total 2009/2010 crop could run out by April/May 2010.

The next substantive harvest is not due until October/November 2010, nearly five months away from the time stocks are exhausted.

There is, therefore, an urgent need to act decisively and provide a quick response to the need for imports, given that the estimated time lag between import order and arrival is about two months.

This calls for a clear decision on the import duty waiver.

The ministry has made a request to the Treasury to have the duty waiver extended to June 2010. However, this request has not been approved yet.

With regard to maize importation, there are lessons to learn from the 2008 experience.

It was then estimated that 10 million bags of maize had to be imported by May 2008.

Initially, the imports which started flowing in by November 2008 were brought in by the government through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB).